Forecasts of geomagnetic conditions are no surprise - they publish a lot of newspapers and web sites (see. such as site Gismeteo ), often associated with the predictions of ... Yes, and in everyday life as an answer to the question ... Let's try to figure out how to make ...
But before you delve into the topic (and for those who are lazy to read) ) let us draw an analogy with the usual weather forecast. On the one hand - all criticized the Synoptics (... But every day ... On the other hand - the forecasts are guided constantly. For even though they are inaccurate, but the overall direction of the weather forecast is quite a. Another point - ... To find out whether rain right now - the forecast is not needed, just look out the window. To find out whether rain tomorrow and whether we should take an umbrella - we look at ... Is it possible to know whether the rain in a given day in a month? . However, the long-term forecasts are also in demand, for example, in agriculture or for power engineering.
So it is with ...
Space projections, as well as their ...
There are 27 ( for example, at TESIS ) and 45 -day forecasts, which relate exclusively to solar activity - whether there will be spots on the sun that can become sources of outbreaks. By analogy with atmospheric weather, the forecast can only say that in the next month rainy season, it may be longer than the previous. Predicting the time of occurrence and effect of such outbreaks can not be predicted.
Compliance with 45 - and 27 -day forecast of the observed data for the period from March 13 to April 16, 2001. Blue line - weather, red - Evidence. Although it was assumed that the geomagnetic situation is weakly perturbed, in fact, these days there was eight strong magnetic storms. Unfortunately, such a low level of coincidence is typical of these forecasts.
More accurate 7 day forecasts are based on the observation of the solar surface, visible at the moment. Once the due east (left ) edge of the solar disk group creeps spots - a warning of the possibility of solar flares. This forecast - as monthly forecast meteorologist - are also in demand only by specialists. In this case - the space agencies for the planning of the outputs of astronauts into space.
When near the central meridian of the sun is a solar flare - are trying to build a daily forecast of 3.2. As we know from previous articles that would be a solar flare caused a magnetic storm, several conditions are necessary: the opposite direction of the interplanetary and geomagnetic field, the trajectory, which allows to be near the Earth's magnetosphere and solar wind strength is sufficient. Each of these conditions is performed with a certain probability. Accordingly, the likelihood of a magnetic storm will be equal to the product of three probabilities and, therefore, be small enough. If you go to the specific numbers, such a forecast has an efficiency of about 30-40%, t. e. Only three or four of the 10 predictions are correct, and six or seven - false.
In addition, the forecast shall indicate the start time the storm, and the velocity perturbations in the solar wind can change in two or three times, and the move away from the Sun to the Earth can be from 1 to 5 days, which again does not benefit the accuracy of .
In addition to all the troubles are often the average magnetic storms can not be called solar flares, and areas with high density of solar wind, formed in the collision of fast and slow currents, and it does not related to solar activity.
The results of observations in the period from October 11 to November 24, 2003.
Above - the movement of active regions during the rotation of the Sun. In the middle - ground-based measurements of the geomagnetic field. At the bottom of X-ray flux that defines the class flares. Notice the peaks match - not all of the flash X- class, even lead to disturbances of the magnetosphere.
The most accurate, but too short ( 30-60 min ) forecast is obtained by analyzing data from the satellite «ACE», located in front of a libration point ( at a distance of 1.5 million. km on the Sun- Earth).
These data allow us to predict the excitation of magnetic storms, substorms with an accuracy of about 95 % (in particular, with such a prediction can be found at the Institute of Space Research ).
Thus, it becomes obvious that 45, 27, 7, and 2- daily forecasts for a healthy person is generally useless, but for people worried- even harmful ( because for them there is only one mention of the impending storm that would begin to experience the real problems . Such forecasts should be used only by specialists who can adequately assess the accuracy and seriousness of the alleged threats, in order to reduce the risk of adverse effects from the magnetic storm. For example, 2sutochny prediction makes sense to bring to physicians that they would be taken into account when planning therapeutic interventions, and the forecast of 30-60 minutes can be used as an alarm and the start of pre-prepared action.